Chef's Log: 12/31/08
Don't over season. One of the oldest mantra's in the kitchen. When there's too many spices in a dish, the taste gets muddled and lost. There is only so much room for so many flavors. This March, there will only be 65 spots. Keep in mind that includes 31 conference champs and 34 at-large bids (the next best 34 teams). While the 31 conference titlists are locks, the remaining 34 spots get tricky. This year will be no exception, in fact look for the selection committee to have one of the largest piles of applications and resumes its had in years.
With mid-majors looking for multiple bids, and power conferences like the Big East & Big Ten pushing for historic numbers of representatives, this March there will be more than the typical share of bubble teams. (In case you're new to college hoops, bubble teams are teams that have borderline credentials to claim the remaining coveted at-large spots.) Last year, there were only a half-dozen or so teams fighting for a few remaining spots. There were only a few "snubs" left out of the crock pot. Arizona State was one of those snubs that will certainly be making up for it this season. This year, look for as many as 12, 15, even more teams to be fighting for only a handful of spots.
Let's break it down and see which conferences are gutsy enough to push for representatives. Starting with the big six conferences, the Big East should have 9 teams locked in, with at least one more hoping for entry. (In fact, look for these 9 lock-teams to all make the top 25 poll this coming Monday, January 5th.) The ACC has about 9 teams with hopes to dance. (Though, look for only 7 to enter.) The Big Ten is making a push for nearly their entire conference, so let's say at least 7 squads. The SEC and the Big 12 will push for 6 each, and the Pac 10 will try for around 6. (Running Total: 44)
Mid-Major conferences such as Conference USA, the WCC & MWC will try for a minimum of 2 teams each: Memphis, UAB, Gonzaga, St. Mary's, BYU, & UNLV. Let's add at least one more team to this total in case of a conference tournament upset or a third at-large team in just one of those conferences. That's a total of 7. (Running Total: 51)
The Atlantic 10 is safe with at least 2, Xavier & Dayton. But due to the size of their conference, look for either a potential third at-large team or a conference tournament upset. The last multi-bid attempts will be from the Missouri Valley Conference & the Colonial Athletic Association. With Illinois St. off to a hot start, and other teams like Creighton & Drake hanging around, there will be 2 squads applying for positions. In the CAA, Hofstra & '06 Cinderella George Mason are challenging Virginia Commonwealth for a spot. One will enter, but another will be on the bubble. (Running Total: 58)
Now let's throw in the remaining small conference champions and assume only 1 team earns a spot, per conference. That's an additional 19 teams. If Butler and/or Davidson don't win their respective conference tournaments, add an additional contendor. (Running Total: 78) With only 65 spots available, there are approximately 13 teams that will receive the thin rejection envelope. This should make for an intriguing season with intriguing conference play, along with intriguing conference tournaments. Is your team one of these bubble teams? Are you already a lock? Or are you on the outside looking in? Nothin' better than college hoops, and this is just one of the reasons. Can't over spice the stew, so let's see which flavors make it in and which do not. Best of luck!
Naked Chef
Wednesday, December 31, 2008
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
King of the Konference (Part 2)
Chef's Log: 12/30/08
The morning after #9 Georgetown toppled #2 UCONN to kick off conference play in fine fashion, we continue our conference breakdowns of the four remaining big conferences: Big 12, Big 10, Pac 10, SEC. Yesterday we threw the ACC and the Big East on the chopping block. Today we open up the kitchen and turn on the burners for latter four conferences.
After the Big East, it is difficult to determine which conference is 2nd best. The ACC is undoubtedly top heavy, with UNC & Duke in the top 5 of the nation, Wake not far behind, but the remaining teams weigh down the conference a bit. Some would say, especially those on the ESPN chat board, that the Big 10 is 2nd best, being that it has numerous teams throughout the conference that are off to a good start. I am going to go out on a limb and say that neither the ACC nor the Big 10 are 2nd to the Big East.
It is the Big 12. Oklahoma is flirting with a potential #1 seed, and will probably wind up with a #2 seed. Texas should lock up a #3 seed, but a #2 seed is not out of the question, pending the Big 12 Tournament. Kansas is rebuilding in a hurry with one of the most underrated, overlooked recruiting classes and a few remaining leaders. Look for the Jayhawks to secure a #4/#5 seed. Baylor & Texas A&M should sneak in with middle seeds. I'm not too sold on Kansas St. this year, without big name Beasley. Sure, the Big 10 has more potential bids, but I'm not too impressed by more than a few. If I were an ACC or Big East team, I'd fear Oklahoma, Texas, and Kansas more than I would a Purdue or Michigan St. squad.
With that said, let's breakdown the Big 10. As of right now, the conference looks as good as it is going to look. Without disrespecting these squads and their coaches too much, Minnesota, Penn St., Ohio St, Michigan, Northwestern, and even Iowa look remarkable on paper. In fact, only Indiana has a losing record in this conference. But out of all these teams, I assure you that the two best teams that will emerge have not been mentioned in this stanza. Purdue & Michigan St, from the previous stanza, will arise as not only conference studs, but should serve as the best Big 10 representatives in the dance. Morgan & Coach Izzo will help the Spartans secure a #3 seed. The returning and more experience squad of Purdue, lead by Hummel, should secure a #4 seed. These two teams could flip flop seeds pending the Big 10 Tournament, or perhaps both earn #3 seeds or better. That's it. That is all. Sure, others will dance, but they will not represent. While I love delivery, these remaining stragglers will be the Papa John's to Famous Original Ray's Pizza. So which other teams will sneak in? Let's work backwards and eliminate the complete overachievers. Iowa, Northwestern & Penn St... out! I'm sorry, but "no soup for you!". I'll give all y'all Big 10 fans some satisfaction and say that Minnesota & Illinois will be between the bubble and mid-high seeds (#8-#12 seeds). Michigan & Ohio St. have been the most impressive of the stragglers. It's been a long time, but Michigan is finally turning some heads again, knocking off some top teams. Ohio St. is doing well after surviving the rebuilding period marred by the departure of a 2007 runner-up team. These two teams should snag middle seeds, Ohio St. #7/#8, Michigan #9/#10. But we'll have to see.
Next up, the west coast and the Pac 10. This conference is not the same it was last year. However, up until now, they're hanging around like raw meat in a butcher shop. In the end, despite the ASU-Harden-hype, it will be UCLA that rights the ship, wins the conference regular season and snags the conference tournament. This will raise their stock all the way up to a #2 seed, perhaps even a #1 seed. This may be an overstatement to some, but I'm not talking about now, I'm talking about then... March. They have what ASU does not have, tourny and big game experience. With that said, the Sun Devils should be the next best team. But I'm keeping them back at a #5/#6 seed in that until they continue the streak they're on, I'll continue to be reminded of the gradual demise of Beasley's Kansas St. a year ago and how they fell from a potential #3 seed to a #11 seed. Harden, though, is still the real deal. In all honesty, the rest of the conference is up for grabs. You have to figure the conference should get a minimum of four bids, and potentially 6. But between Stanford, Arizona, USC, WSU & Cal, who'll grab these spots. Stanford and Cal want them now, but look for them to cool off a bit. I still love WSU and their defensive presence, but they're a different team from last year without Weaver. But we have to make some kind of prediction so here goes: Arizona & USC #7/#8, Stanford & WSU bubble teams, Cal & Wash out.
Lastly, we have the SEC. Tennessee is off to a solid start, despite losing to Temple. They're by far the top of this conference since Florida is not meeting expectations. Tenn will snag a #4 seed, perhaps higher simply as an SEC top representative. Florida could turn things around but I still see them securing a #5 seed. That's not so bad Gator fans. Kentucky is starting to play a bit better, and their reputation alone will garner them a bid. I'll put them at a #8 seed. LSU will sneak in with a #9 seed. They're going to cool off quite a bit. It's cloudy after that. Vandy & Arkansas will fight to keep off the bubble. South Carolina and Bama will come up short. This is probably the worst of the big six conferences. Teams should fear Tennessee, but no one else.
Naked Chef
The morning after #9 Georgetown toppled #2 UCONN to kick off conference play in fine fashion, we continue our conference breakdowns of the four remaining big conferences: Big 12, Big 10, Pac 10, SEC. Yesterday we threw the ACC and the Big East on the chopping block. Today we open up the kitchen and turn on the burners for latter four conferences.
After the Big East, it is difficult to determine which conference is 2nd best. The ACC is undoubtedly top heavy, with UNC & Duke in the top 5 of the nation, Wake not far behind, but the remaining teams weigh down the conference a bit. Some would say, especially those on the ESPN chat board, that the Big 10 is 2nd best, being that it has numerous teams throughout the conference that are off to a good start. I am going to go out on a limb and say that neither the ACC nor the Big 10 are 2nd to the Big East.
It is the Big 12. Oklahoma is flirting with a potential #1 seed, and will probably wind up with a #2 seed. Texas should lock up a #3 seed, but a #2 seed is not out of the question, pending the Big 12 Tournament. Kansas is rebuilding in a hurry with one of the most underrated, overlooked recruiting classes and a few remaining leaders. Look for the Jayhawks to secure a #4/#5 seed. Baylor & Texas A&M should sneak in with middle seeds. I'm not too sold on Kansas St. this year, without big name Beasley. Sure, the Big 10 has more potential bids, but I'm not too impressed by more than a few. If I were an ACC or Big East team, I'd fear Oklahoma, Texas, and Kansas more than I would a Purdue or Michigan St. squad.
With that said, let's breakdown the Big 10. As of right now, the conference looks as good as it is going to look. Without disrespecting these squads and their coaches too much, Minnesota, Penn St., Ohio St, Michigan, Northwestern, and even Iowa look remarkable on paper. In fact, only Indiana has a losing record in this conference. But out of all these teams, I assure you that the two best teams that will emerge have not been mentioned in this stanza. Purdue & Michigan St, from the previous stanza, will arise as not only conference studs, but should serve as the best Big 10 representatives in the dance. Morgan & Coach Izzo will help the Spartans secure a #3 seed. The returning and more experience squad of Purdue, lead by Hummel, should secure a #4 seed. These two teams could flip flop seeds pending the Big 10 Tournament, or perhaps both earn #3 seeds or better. That's it. That is all. Sure, others will dance, but they will not represent. While I love delivery, these remaining stragglers will be the Papa John's to Famous Original Ray's Pizza. So which other teams will sneak in? Let's work backwards and eliminate the complete overachievers. Iowa, Northwestern & Penn St... out! I'm sorry, but "no soup for you!". I'll give all y'all Big 10 fans some satisfaction and say that Minnesota & Illinois will be between the bubble and mid-high seeds (#8-#12 seeds). Michigan & Ohio St. have been the most impressive of the stragglers. It's been a long time, but Michigan is finally turning some heads again, knocking off some top teams. Ohio St. is doing well after surviving the rebuilding period marred by the departure of a 2007 runner-up team. These two teams should snag middle seeds, Ohio St. #7/#8, Michigan #9/#10. But we'll have to see.
Next up, the west coast and the Pac 10. This conference is not the same it was last year. However, up until now, they're hanging around like raw meat in a butcher shop. In the end, despite the ASU-Harden-hype, it will be UCLA that rights the ship, wins the conference regular season and snags the conference tournament. This will raise their stock all the way up to a #2 seed, perhaps even a #1 seed. This may be an overstatement to some, but I'm not talking about now, I'm talking about then... March. They have what ASU does not have, tourny and big game experience. With that said, the Sun Devils should be the next best team. But I'm keeping them back at a #5/#6 seed in that until they continue the streak they're on, I'll continue to be reminded of the gradual demise of Beasley's Kansas St. a year ago and how they fell from a potential #3 seed to a #11 seed. Harden, though, is still the real deal. In all honesty, the rest of the conference is up for grabs. You have to figure the conference should get a minimum of four bids, and potentially 6. But between Stanford, Arizona, USC, WSU & Cal, who'll grab these spots. Stanford and Cal want them now, but look for them to cool off a bit. I still love WSU and their defensive presence, but they're a different team from last year without Weaver. But we have to make some kind of prediction so here goes: Arizona & USC #7/#8, Stanford & WSU bubble teams, Cal & Wash out.
Lastly, we have the SEC. Tennessee is off to a solid start, despite losing to Temple. They're by far the top of this conference since Florida is not meeting expectations. Tenn will snag a #4 seed, perhaps higher simply as an SEC top representative. Florida could turn things around but I still see them securing a #5 seed. That's not so bad Gator fans. Kentucky is starting to play a bit better, and their reputation alone will garner them a bid. I'll put them at a #8 seed. LSU will sneak in with a #9 seed. They're going to cool off quite a bit. It's cloudy after that. Vandy & Arkansas will fight to keep off the bubble. South Carolina and Bama will come up short. This is probably the worst of the big six conferences. Teams should fear Tennessee, but no one else.
Naked Chef
Monday, December 29, 2008
King of the Konference (Part 1)
Chef's Log: 12/29/08
With only a few days left in 2008, conference play kicks off like a quick firing propane grill. It is now when college hoops actually begins. We've gotten but a mere taste of the dishes to come up until now. There will be no more excuses, no more weak non-conference schedule talk, and no more escape hatches. You're now in it to win it, sink or swim. We'll find out which conferences are good, and which teams are better. And soon after that, we'll find out which are best. Now to the cutting board, let's briefly breakdown the top conferences.
ACC: While I believe the Big East is the most prolific conference this season, we'll start with the conference with the consensus top team in the country. The ACC holds potential tourny teams UNC, Duke, Wake, Clemson, Miami, Maryland, VaTech, FSU, and BC. Out of these 9 hopefuls, I believe that at most 7 will dance this march, but more likely 6. More indepth breakdowns will be held for a later post, but here are my seed predictions. UNC #1, Duke #1/#2, Wake #5/#6 (which I know people expect better, I think they're gonna fall back), Miami #5-#7, Clemson #7/#8, Maryland #10/#11, VaTech & FSU & BC on the bubble. Will two squads get one seeds? They'd both have to rarely lose in conference play and only beat each other. But I actually think that's possible. Will more than 7 ACC teams dance? I highly doubt it with the caliber of the Big East and the increasing presence of the Big Ten. How will the ACC do come tourny time? Truthfully, I think only UNC will make a legitimate run and serve as a safe lock as a Final Four contender. Duke has been an iffy dancer as of late, but I think they're team is better than the past. Either Elite 8 or bust for Coach K's Blue Devils. Other squads, Wake, Clemson, Miami... sorry not this year. 1 or 2 and done for you boys.
Big East: This will have to be the abridged version due to the overwhelming depth and presence of this year's teams. I'll go out and say that this is the most dominating the Big East has ever been. They're like a viscous stew; filled with intricate ingredients and spiced to perfection with harmonious and contradicting flavors. Let me start out and say that it is not unfeasible that the Big East could see 3 teams in the Final Four. Will it happen? Probably not, but it is definitely not unlikely. 2009 potential tourny teams include UCONN, Pitt, Lville, ND, Cuse, Marquette, Nova, Gtown, WV, Cincy, and dare I include Prov & SH. Out of these teams, I predict the first 9 will go dancing. If there's a 10th, I predict Cincy while many are still sticking with Prov. As powerful as the conference is, I don't think 10 teams will dance unless something drastic occurs in the Big East Tourny. However, the 9 teams that will dance will do more than dance, they'll sizzle! Predicted seeds: UCONN #1/#2, (The Huskies are still putting the pieces together so they could take a few knocks and fall to a #2 seed. But the talent is definitely there.) Pitt #1/#2, Lville #2/#3, (I really believe Pitino will bring his boys to fruition.) ND #3, Cuse #4-#6, Gtown #4, Marqu #5, Nova #7, WV #8, all others on the bubble, if that. Which teams could make the Final Four? Any 3 of the following teams could meet UNC in Detroit: UCONN, Pitt, Lville, ND, Cuse, Marq. I think the first four are a bit more likely, but all 6 of these teams have shooters and big men. Marquette is probably the most underrated of these teams. I wouldn't be surprised if they made a D-Wade-like run this March with the unsung heroes they have. UCONN has to make sure they play to their potential, not simply skate by whomever they're playing against. Pitt has it all, but they have a bad tourny reputation. Lville & ND are sleeping volcanoes ready to erupt with big men and shooting presence. Look for the Big East to sprinkle across your bracket sheets this march like Parmesan cheese over a good dish of pasta.
Coming soon, King of the Konference Part 2 (featuring breakdowns of the Big 12, Big 10, Pac 10, and SEC)
~Naked Chef
With only a few days left in 2008, conference play kicks off like a quick firing propane grill. It is now when college hoops actually begins. We've gotten but a mere taste of the dishes to come up until now. There will be no more excuses, no more weak non-conference schedule talk, and no more escape hatches. You're now in it to win it, sink or swim. We'll find out which conferences are good, and which teams are better. And soon after that, we'll find out which are best. Now to the cutting board, let's briefly breakdown the top conferences.
ACC: While I believe the Big East is the most prolific conference this season, we'll start with the conference with the consensus top team in the country. The ACC holds potential tourny teams UNC, Duke, Wake, Clemson, Miami, Maryland, VaTech, FSU, and BC. Out of these 9 hopefuls, I believe that at most 7 will dance this march, but more likely 6. More indepth breakdowns will be held for a later post, but here are my seed predictions. UNC #1, Duke #1/#2, Wake #5/#6 (which I know people expect better, I think they're gonna fall back), Miami #5-#7, Clemson #7/#8, Maryland #10/#11, VaTech & FSU & BC on the bubble. Will two squads get one seeds? They'd both have to rarely lose in conference play and only beat each other. But I actually think that's possible. Will more than 7 ACC teams dance? I highly doubt it with the caliber of the Big East and the increasing presence of the Big Ten. How will the ACC do come tourny time? Truthfully, I think only UNC will make a legitimate run and serve as a safe lock as a Final Four contender. Duke has been an iffy dancer as of late, but I think they're team is better than the past. Either Elite 8 or bust for Coach K's Blue Devils. Other squads, Wake, Clemson, Miami... sorry not this year. 1 or 2 and done for you boys.
Big East: This will have to be the abridged version due to the overwhelming depth and presence of this year's teams. I'll go out and say that this is the most dominating the Big East has ever been. They're like a viscous stew; filled with intricate ingredients and spiced to perfection with harmonious and contradicting flavors. Let me start out and say that it is not unfeasible that the Big East could see 3 teams in the Final Four. Will it happen? Probably not, but it is definitely not unlikely. 2009 potential tourny teams include UCONN, Pitt, Lville, ND, Cuse, Marquette, Nova, Gtown, WV, Cincy, and dare I include Prov & SH. Out of these teams, I predict the first 9 will go dancing. If there's a 10th, I predict Cincy while many are still sticking with Prov. As powerful as the conference is, I don't think 10 teams will dance unless something drastic occurs in the Big East Tourny. However, the 9 teams that will dance will do more than dance, they'll sizzle! Predicted seeds: UCONN #1/#2, (The Huskies are still putting the pieces together so they could take a few knocks and fall to a #2 seed. But the talent is definitely there.) Pitt #1/#2, Lville #2/#3, (I really believe Pitino will bring his boys to fruition.) ND #3, Cuse #4-#6, Gtown #4, Marqu #5, Nova #7, WV #8, all others on the bubble, if that. Which teams could make the Final Four? Any 3 of the following teams could meet UNC in Detroit: UCONN, Pitt, Lville, ND, Cuse, Marq. I think the first four are a bit more likely, but all 6 of these teams have shooters and big men. Marquette is probably the most underrated of these teams. I wouldn't be surprised if they made a D-Wade-like run this March with the unsung heroes they have. UCONN has to make sure they play to their potential, not simply skate by whomever they're playing against. Pitt has it all, but they have a bad tourny reputation. Lville & ND are sleeping volcanoes ready to erupt with big men and shooting presence. Look for the Big East to sprinkle across your bracket sheets this march like Parmesan cheese over a good dish of pasta.
Coming soon, King of the Konference Part 2 (featuring breakdowns of the Big 12, Big 10, Pac 10, and SEC)
~Naked Chef
Saturday, December 27, 2008
One For The Little Guy
Chef's Log: 12/27/08
We'll push the big conference chat to the back burner for a post and give the 'little guy' a chance at main dish. In noticing quite a bit of fan-chat on the ESPN Bracketology message board, I figured I'd oblige and give people what they want. So here it is, some early insight on a very ambiguous mid-major and small conference field.
We're all well aware of UNC, Pitt, UCONN, Duke, Oklahoma, and so on... but what about Butler, Davidson, BYU, and ... Western Kentucky?! Let's start with the latter, Western Kentucky. There a "who?" team that people forget advanced to the Sweet 16 as a #12 seed just one year ago. Even though they beat a mid-major #5 seed Drake and a #13 seed San Diego (who upset UCONN in round 1), they were a high scoring team throughout the year. W. Kentucky continued their momentum this season upsetting Louisville. Keep a watch on these guys.
There's been quite a bit of 'Butler-banter' throughout the message boards. Seems the bottom line is they have a potentially talented, young team who could make a run in the 2010 tournament. The graduation of AJ Graves and others depletes a level of experience that Butler amassed over the past few years. But with their young talent, they'll dance this year, and perhaps make a run next year.
We've all by now heard of Davidson, or at least Stephen Curry. The kid is the real deal. He's the brickoven pizza to microwave pizza. He's the imported prosciutto to the domestic. He can shoot. And this year, he's proving he can man the point and dish the ball. The question is can his supporting cast suit up if teams decide to strategically defend Curry? A run like last year (Elite 8 as a #10 seed defeating #3 Wisconsin and #2 Georgetown) might be improbable in that they wont be sneaking up on anyone this go around. But look for them to garner a better seed than last year, potentially a #5 spot.
Virginia Military has been a team on my radar since last year. I find my way around the stats sites across the web (kenpom, warennolan, etc) and have noticed that VM has been an offensive powerhouse last year and this. The squad spices it up like an over-curried Vindaloo. The schedule and defense may be suspect, so we'll keep a close watch on these boys.
To the bigger mid-majors, you'll come across teams like BYU & UNLV from the Mountain West Conference, a conference that usually prides itself on at least 2 tourny bids. You'll stumble upon the Atlantic-10, another multi-bid conference featuring Xavier and Dayton this year. You'll come across the WCC with St. Mary's and fan favorite Gonzaga. Out of this crop, Gonzaga is probably the creme fraiche to their sour cream. While 'sour' may be too bitter of a statement, it's more of a testament to the skill level of Gonzaga this year. They've dropped back a few spots with a heartbreaker to UCONN in overtime (where AJ Price pulled off a miraculous circus shot to force OT) in which the Zags controlled most of this contest. They followed that up with a loss to Portland St. But Jeremy Pargo is the real deal, and a potential NBA threat at the point guard position. He's quick, can shoot, and can dish. He's a real playmaker. The Zags also have big man presence that, if they stay out of foul trouble, can be a nuisance for any and all big conference teams. The Zags probably wont garner a #2 seed (certainly not a #1 seed) as many have predicted. But with a slew of potential wins in a still-developing WCC, they should grab a solid #3 seed.
St. Mary's has their own talent and star power in Patrick Mills. They'll earn their second consecutive berth with some solid conference play and grab a middle seed. UNLV was the talk of the MWC pre-season. But BYU is off and running. Look for these two mid-majors to grab seeds in the #7 - #10 range. Xavier will continue to slide in the rankings. They're hot record included a few nailbiter/buzzer-beater wins. They'll cool off. They already have. Dayton should be a near lock for a 2nd Atl-10 berth. It's tough to predict a 3rd team from the division this early. As of right now, no one wants it. But with 14 teams (in the Atlantic 10?), someone has to step up... don't they?
It's tough to neglect Conference USA Memphis, especially after they're run and dare I say choke from last year. Besides proving that free throw shooting truly does matter, they've also proved that you can not discount the mid major teams. We all know that Memphis isn't the Memphis from last year (losing CDR, Rose, and virtually everyone else!). But with highly touted freshman Tyreke Evans and a more than reputable coach, they should grab a #4 seed this year. UAB is the other rumored team to sneak in. In order to avoid a bursting bubble, they'll have to rely on Robert Vaden to carry the load.
There are others, but these lead the pack. Is there a Cinderella in this bunch... an '08 Davidson or an '06 Mason? There's talent out there, but I believe in the end, these teams will most likely serve as a starter course to the full-bodied entrees of the Big Six power conferences.
We'll push the big conference chat to the back burner for a post and give the 'little guy' a chance at main dish. In noticing quite a bit of fan-chat on the ESPN Bracketology message board, I figured I'd oblige and give people what they want. So here it is, some early insight on a very ambiguous mid-major and small conference field.
We're all well aware of UNC, Pitt, UCONN, Duke, Oklahoma, and so on... but what about Butler, Davidson, BYU, and ... Western Kentucky?! Let's start with the latter, Western Kentucky. There a "who?" team that people forget advanced to the Sweet 16 as a #12 seed just one year ago. Even though they beat a mid-major #5 seed Drake and a #13 seed San Diego (who upset UCONN in round 1), they were a high scoring team throughout the year. W. Kentucky continued their momentum this season upsetting Louisville. Keep a watch on these guys.
There's been quite a bit of 'Butler-banter' throughout the message boards. Seems the bottom line is they have a potentially talented, young team who could make a run in the 2010 tournament. The graduation of AJ Graves and others depletes a level of experience that Butler amassed over the past few years. But with their young talent, they'll dance this year, and perhaps make a run next year.
We've all by now heard of Davidson, or at least Stephen Curry. The kid is the real deal. He's the brickoven pizza to microwave pizza. He's the imported prosciutto to the domestic. He can shoot. And this year, he's proving he can man the point and dish the ball. The question is can his supporting cast suit up if teams decide to strategically defend Curry? A run like last year (Elite 8 as a #10 seed defeating #3 Wisconsin and #2 Georgetown) might be improbable in that they wont be sneaking up on anyone this go around. But look for them to garner a better seed than last year, potentially a #5 spot.
Virginia Military has been a team on my radar since last year. I find my way around the stats sites across the web (kenpom, warennolan, etc) and have noticed that VM has been an offensive powerhouse last year and this. The squad spices it up like an over-curried Vindaloo. The schedule and defense may be suspect, so we'll keep a close watch on these boys.
To the bigger mid-majors, you'll come across teams like BYU & UNLV from the Mountain West Conference, a conference that usually prides itself on at least 2 tourny bids. You'll stumble upon the Atlantic-10, another multi-bid conference featuring Xavier and Dayton this year. You'll come across the WCC with St. Mary's and fan favorite Gonzaga. Out of this crop, Gonzaga is probably the creme fraiche to their sour cream. While 'sour' may be too bitter of a statement, it's more of a testament to the skill level of Gonzaga this year. They've dropped back a few spots with a heartbreaker to UCONN in overtime (where AJ Price pulled off a miraculous circus shot to force OT) in which the Zags controlled most of this contest. They followed that up with a loss to Portland St. But Jeremy Pargo is the real deal, and a potential NBA threat at the point guard position. He's quick, can shoot, and can dish. He's a real playmaker. The Zags also have big man presence that, if they stay out of foul trouble, can be a nuisance for any and all big conference teams. The Zags probably wont garner a #2 seed (certainly not a #1 seed) as many have predicted. But with a slew of potential wins in a still-developing WCC, they should grab a solid #3 seed.
St. Mary's has their own talent and star power in Patrick Mills. They'll earn their second consecutive berth with some solid conference play and grab a middle seed. UNLV was the talk of the MWC pre-season. But BYU is off and running. Look for these two mid-majors to grab seeds in the #7 - #10 range. Xavier will continue to slide in the rankings. They're hot record included a few nailbiter/buzzer-beater wins. They'll cool off. They already have. Dayton should be a near lock for a 2nd Atl-10 berth. It's tough to predict a 3rd team from the division this early. As of right now, no one wants it. But with 14 teams (in the Atlantic 10?), someone has to step up... don't they?
It's tough to neglect Conference USA Memphis, especially after they're run and dare I say choke from last year. Besides proving that free throw shooting truly does matter, they've also proved that you can not discount the mid major teams. We all know that Memphis isn't the Memphis from last year (losing CDR, Rose, and virtually everyone else!). But with highly touted freshman Tyreke Evans and a more than reputable coach, they should grab a #4 seed this year. UAB is the other rumored team to sneak in. In order to avoid a bursting bubble, they'll have to rely on Robert Vaden to carry the load.
There are others, but these lead the pack. Is there a Cinderella in this bunch... an '08 Davidson or an '06 Mason? There's talent out there, but I believe in the end, these teams will most likely serve as a starter course to the full-bodied entrees of the Big Six power conferences.
Friday, December 26, 2008
Smoke & Mirrors
Chef's Log: 12/26/08
A good chef knows how to disguise a mediocre dish with fancy tricks and flashy presentation. That is how a slew of teams look on paper as of right now. It is too early to determine who'll survive conference play and who'll fizzle out like a lackluster demi-glaze. But it is definitely fun to try. Schools like Ohio St., Illinois, Illinois St, Clemson & Minnesota are hot teams, with hot records (all undefeated), but with not-so-hot schedules. Even their infamously easy academic course loads have been more challenging than their non-conference play. With all due respect to some respectable coaches, look for schools like these to reveal their true colors once conference play kicks into action.
On the other side of the coin, you have teams like Michigan St., Texas, Notre Dame & even Davidson looking perhaps just B+ on paper as of right now. With a few losses each, these squads have dropped in the polls. But you have to a) look at who've they played and b) watch these teams play either live or on television if and when possible. All four of these teams have one thing in common, a star (Morgan, Abrams, Harangody, Curry). And most of these teams have a decent supporting cast. Look for these teams to survive conference play more effectively than the 'smoke & mirror' teams from the aforementioned paragraph. Especially Davidson, who we all know will roll through their weak conference potentially undefeated. Keep Louisville in mind as well. Like last year, look for Pitino to foster his boys, including new sensation Samardo Samuels, through conference play and beyond.
We'll also have to keep a close eye on which teams are the real deal, the diamonds in the rough, the pearls in the oyster. Is Wake the real deal, the pearl in the ACC's oyster? Can the Golden Gophers be the diamond in the Big Ten's rough? Is 'Cuse the 'looker' it seems to be hiding behind that fuzzy turtleneck know as the Big East? Could be, we'll have to wait and see. After all, sometimes the prom queen isn't all smoke and mirrors.
Happy Boxing Day
Naked Chef
A good chef knows how to disguise a mediocre dish with fancy tricks and flashy presentation. That is how a slew of teams look on paper as of right now. It is too early to determine who'll survive conference play and who'll fizzle out like a lackluster demi-glaze. But it is definitely fun to try. Schools like Ohio St., Illinois, Illinois St, Clemson & Minnesota are hot teams, with hot records (all undefeated), but with not-so-hot schedules. Even their infamously easy academic course loads have been more challenging than their non-conference play. With all due respect to some respectable coaches, look for schools like these to reveal their true colors once conference play kicks into action.
On the other side of the coin, you have teams like Michigan St., Texas, Notre Dame & even Davidson looking perhaps just B+ on paper as of right now. With a few losses each, these squads have dropped in the polls. But you have to a) look at who've they played and b) watch these teams play either live or on television if and when possible. All four of these teams have one thing in common, a star (Morgan, Abrams, Harangody, Curry). And most of these teams have a decent supporting cast. Look for these teams to survive conference play more effectively than the 'smoke & mirror' teams from the aforementioned paragraph. Especially Davidson, who we all know will roll through their weak conference potentially undefeated. Keep Louisville in mind as well. Like last year, look for Pitino to foster his boys, including new sensation Samardo Samuels, through conference play and beyond.
We'll also have to keep a close eye on which teams are the real deal, the diamonds in the rough, the pearls in the oyster. Is Wake the real deal, the pearl in the ACC's oyster? Can the Golden Gophers be the diamond in the Big Ten's rough? Is 'Cuse the 'looker' it seems to be hiding behind that fuzzy turtleneck know as the Big East? Could be, we'll have to wait and see. After all, sometimes the prom queen isn't all smoke and mirrors.
Happy Boxing Day
Naked Chef
Thursday, December 25, 2008
Chef's Bracketology
| FIRST ROUND | FIRST ROUND | ||||
| MARCH 19-20 | MARCH 19-20 | ||||
| 1 | North Carolina | Connecticut | 1 | ||
| 16 | MtStMry/Coppin | Prarie View A&M | 16 | ||
| (play in, mar 17) | |||||
| 8 | West Virginia | Ohio St. | 8 | ||
| 9 | Baylor | Kentucky | 9 | ||
| 5 | Miami | Florida | 5 | ||
| 12 | Kent St. | Minnesota | 12 | ||
| 4 | Georgetown | Kansas | 4 | ||
| 13 | Drake | George Mason | 13 | ||
| 6 | Xavier | Wake Forest | 6 | ||
| 11 | St. Mary's | Dayton | 11 | ||
| 3 | Notre Dame | Gonzaga | 3 | ||
| 14 | Cornell | Pacific | 14 | ||
| 7 | Wisconsin | Villanova | 7 | ||
| 10 | Arkansas | Michigan | 10 | ||
| 2 | UCLA | Texas | 2 | ||
| 15 | Belmont | Portland St. | 15 | ||
| 1 | Duke | Pittsburgh | 1 | ||
| 16 | Jacksonville St. | Texas-Arlington | 16 | ||
| 8 | Arizona | Clemson | 8 | ||
| 9 | Butler | LSU | 9 | ||
| 5 | Marquette | Davidson | 5 | ||
| 12 | UAB | Texas A&M | 12 | ||
| 4 | Tennessee | Memphis | 4 | ||
| 13 | Virginia Military | Oral Roberts | 13 | ||
| 6 | Arizona St. | Syracuse | 6 | ||
| 11 | W. Kentucky | Maryland | 11 | ||
| 3 | Purdue | Michigan St. | 3 | ||
| 14 | Boise St. | Siena | 14 | ||
| 7 | UNLV | USC | 7 | ||
| 10 | Virginia Tech. | BYU | 10 | ||
| 2 | Louisville | Oklahoma | 2 | ||
| 15 | UMBC | Lehigh | 15 | ||
UNC v Big East
Chef's Log 12.25.08
After a brief hiatus due to an exhausting March '08, we kick off this year's analysis with an installment on 08-09's best. As a culinary lover, I tend to overuse kitchen metaphors. We'll ignite the burner with some sizzle between dominant favorite North Carolina and the baker's dozen of potential teams from the Big East. North Carolina, with most key contributors from last year returning, have only themselves and perhaps an inconsistent defense to steer clear of. If they can duck a piping hot March team, they should slide into the Final Four & Championship Game like a casserole into a pre-heated oven.
Any key competitor should come from the Big East. With potentially 9 teams coming out of the Big East into the Dance, the question is which teams will come out of the double-broiler, known as the Big East conference schedule, relatively unscathed. Big men lead teams such as UCONN, Pitt, & Notre Dame are top favorites. Louisville should not be discarded despite their rocky start. They started slow last year and cruised into the Elite 8 before falling to UNC. Marquette & Cuse have solid shooting. G-Town is turning some heads despite losing several key contributors in the off season. But Connecticut has the slight edge over the conference especially with the return of the unrefined athletic freak Stanley Robinson joining studs like AJ Price, Jerome Dyson, Hasheem Thabeet, Jeff Adrien, and newbie Kemba Walker. If these guys can get it together and mesh like a good sheppard's pie, look out North Carolina!
More to come, you keep posted and I'll keep cookin' up college hoops!
Happy Christmas
-Naked Chef
After a brief hiatus due to an exhausting March '08, we kick off this year's analysis with an installment on 08-09's best. As a culinary lover, I tend to overuse kitchen metaphors. We'll ignite the burner with some sizzle between dominant favorite North Carolina and the baker's dozen of potential teams from the Big East. North Carolina, with most key contributors from last year returning, have only themselves and perhaps an inconsistent defense to steer clear of. If they can duck a piping hot March team, they should slide into the Final Four & Championship Game like a casserole into a pre-heated oven.
Any key competitor should come from the Big East. With potentially 9 teams coming out of the Big East into the Dance, the question is which teams will come out of the double-broiler, known as the Big East conference schedule, relatively unscathed. Big men lead teams such as UCONN, Pitt, & Notre Dame are top favorites. Louisville should not be discarded despite their rocky start. They started slow last year and cruised into the Elite 8 before falling to UNC. Marquette & Cuse have solid shooting. G-Town is turning some heads despite losing several key contributors in the off season. But Connecticut has the slight edge over the conference especially with the return of the unrefined athletic freak Stanley Robinson joining studs like AJ Price, Jerome Dyson, Hasheem Thabeet, Jeff Adrien, and newbie Kemba Walker. If these guys can get it together and mesh like a good sheppard's pie, look out North Carolina!
More to come, you keep posted and I'll keep cookin' up college hoops!
Happy Christmas
-Naked Chef
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