One For The Little Guy

Chef's Log: 12/27/08

We'll push the big conference chat to the back burner for a post and give the 'little guy' a chance at main dish. In noticing quite a bit of fan-chat on the ESPN Bracketology message board, I figured I'd oblige and give people what they want. So here it is, some early insight on a very ambiguous mid-major and small conference field.

We're all well aware of UNC, Pitt, UCONN, Duke, Oklahoma, and so on... but what about Butler, Davidson, BYU, and ... Western Kentucky?! Let's start with the latter, Western Kentucky. There a "who?" team that people forget advanced to the Sweet 16 as a #12 seed just one year ago. Even though they beat a mid-major #5 seed Drake and a #13 seed San Diego (who upset UCONN in round 1), they were a high scoring team throughout the year. W. Kentucky continued their momentum this season upsetting Louisville. Keep a watch on these guys.

There's been quite a bit of 'Butler-banter' throughout the message boards. Seems the bottom line is they have a potentially talented, young team who could make a run in the 2010 tournament. The graduation of AJ Graves and others depletes a level of experience that Butler amassed over the past few years. But with their young talent, they'll dance this year, and perhaps make a run next year.

We've all by now heard of Davidson, or at least Stephen Curry. The kid is the real deal. He's the brickoven pizza to microwave pizza. He's the imported prosciutto to the domestic. He can shoot. And this year, he's proving he can man the point and dish the ball. The question is can his supporting cast suit up if teams decide to strategically defend Curry? A run like last year (Elite 8 as a #10 seed defeating #3 Wisconsin and #2 Georgetown) might be improbable in that they wont be sneaking up on anyone this go around. But look for them to garner a better seed than last year, potentially a #5 spot.

Virginia Military has been a team on my radar since last year. I find my way around the stats sites across the web (kenpom, warennolan, etc) and have noticed that VM has been an offensive powerhouse last year and this. The squad spices it up like an over-curried Vindaloo. The schedule and defense may be suspect, so we'll keep a close watch on these boys.

To the bigger mid-majors, you'll come across teams like BYU & UNLV from the Mountain West Conference, a conference that usually prides itself on at least 2 tourny bids. You'll stumble upon the Atlantic-10, another multi-bid conference featuring Xavier and Dayton this year. You'll come across the WCC with St. Mary's and fan favorite Gonzaga. Out of this crop, Gonzaga is probably the creme fraiche to their sour cream. While 'sour' may be too bitter of a statement, it's more of a testament to the skill level of Gonzaga this year. They've dropped back a few spots with a heartbreaker to UCONN in overtime (where AJ Price pulled off a miraculous circus shot to force OT) in which the Zags controlled most of this contest. They followed that up with a loss to Portland St. But Jeremy Pargo is the real deal, and a potential NBA threat at the point guard position. He's quick, can shoot, and can dish. He's a real playmaker. The Zags also have big man presence that, if they stay out of foul trouble, can be a nuisance for any and all big conference teams. The Zags probably wont garner a #2 seed (certainly not a #1 seed) as many have predicted. But with a slew of potential wins in a still-developing WCC, they should grab a solid #3 seed.

St. Mary's has their own talent and star power in Patrick Mills. They'll earn their second consecutive berth with some solid conference play and grab a middle seed. UNLV was the talk of the MWC pre-season. But BYU is off and running. Look for these two mid-majors to grab seeds in the #7 - #10 range. Xavier will continue to slide in the rankings. They're hot record included a few nailbiter/buzzer-beater wins. They'll cool off. They already have. Dayton should be a near lock for a 2nd Atl-10 berth. It's tough to predict a 3rd team from the division this early. As of right now, no one wants it. But with 14 teams (in the Atlantic 10?), someone has to step up... don't they?

It's tough to neglect Conference USA Memphis, especially after they're run and dare I say choke from last year. Besides proving that free throw shooting truly does matter, they've also proved that you can not discount the mid major teams. We all know that Memphis isn't the Memphis from last year (losing CDR, Rose, and virtually everyone else!). But with highly touted freshman Tyreke Evans and a more than reputable coach, they should grab a #4 seed this year. UAB is the other rumored team to sneak in. In order to avoid a bursting bubble, they'll have to rely on Robert Vaden to carry the load.

There are others, but these lead the pack. Is there a Cinderella in this bunch... an '08 Davidson or an '06 Mason? There's talent out there, but I believe in the end, these teams will most likely serve as a starter course to the full-bodied entrees of the Big Six power conferences.