Tiny Bubbles

Chef's Log: 12/31/08

Don't over season. One of the oldest mantra's in the kitchen. When there's too many spices in a dish, the taste gets muddled and lost. There is only so much room for so many flavors. This March, there will only be 65 spots. Keep in mind that includes 31 conference champs and 34 at-large bids (the next best 34 teams). While the 31 conference titlists are locks, the remaining 34 spots get tricky. This year will be no exception, in fact look for the selection committee to have one of the largest piles of applications and resumes its had in years.

With mid-majors looking for multiple bids, and power conferences like the Big East & Big Ten pushing for historic numbers of representatives, this March there will be more than the typical share of bubble teams. (In case you're new to college hoops, bubble teams are teams that have borderline credentials to claim the remaining coveted at-large spots.) Last year, there were only a half-dozen or so teams fighting for a few remaining spots. There were only a few "snubs" left out of the crock pot. Arizona State was one of those snubs that will certainly be making up for it this season. This year, look for as many as 12, 15, even more teams to be fighting for only a handful of spots.

Let's break it down and see which conferences are gutsy enough to push for representatives. Starting with the big six conferences, the Big East should have 9 teams locked in, with at least one more hoping for entry. (In fact, look for these 9 lock-teams to all make the top 25 poll this coming Monday, January 5th.) The ACC has about 9 teams with hopes to dance. (Though, look for only 7 to enter.) The Big Ten is making a push for nearly their entire conference, so let's say at least 7 squads. The SEC and the Big 12 will push for 6 each, and the Pac 10 will try for around 6. (Running Total: 44)

Mid-Major conferences such as Conference USA, the WCC & MWC will try for a minimum of 2 teams each: Memphis, UAB, Gonzaga, St. Mary's, BYU, & UNLV. Let's add at least one more team to this total in case of a conference tournament upset or a third at-large team in just one of those conferences. That's a total of 7. (Running Total: 51)

The Atlantic 10 is safe with at least 2, Xavier & Dayton. But due to the size of their conference, look for either a potential third at-large team or a conference tournament upset. The last multi-bid attempts will be from the Missouri Valley Conference & the Colonial Athletic Association. With Illinois St. off to a hot start, and other teams like Creighton & Drake hanging around, there will be 2 squads applying for positions. In the CAA, Hofstra & '06 Cinderella George Mason are challenging Virginia Commonwealth for a spot. One will enter, but another will be on the bubble. (Running Total: 58)

Now let's throw in the remaining small conference champions and assume only 1 team earns a spot, per conference. That's an additional 19 teams. If Butler and/or Davidson don't win their respective conference tournaments, add an additional contendor. (Running Total: 78) With only 65 spots available, there are approximately 13 teams that will receive the thin rejection envelope. This should make for an intriguing season with intriguing conference play, along with intriguing conference tournaments. Is your team one of these bubble teams? Are you already a lock? Or are you on the outside looking in? Nothin' better than college hoops, and this is just one of the reasons. Can't over spice the stew, so let's see which flavors make it in and which do not. Best of luck!

Naked Chef